27 February, 2014

An opinion poll considers the outcome of a duel between left and right as unpredictable

Selon un récent sondage, il est très difficile de dire qui, de Frédéric Béatse ou de Christophe Béchu, l'emportera en cas de face à face au second tour des élections municipales. En 2008, le maire sortant ne l'avait emporté que de quelques centaines de voix. L'écart pourrait être encore plus faible pour son successeur en mars prochain.

According to a new poll published on February 25th by Election Scope, an institute dedicated to electoral
forecasts based on political and economical datas, the outcome of the second round of the next Angers municipal elections will be very close between Frédéric Béatse and Christophe Béchu, socialist and conservative candidates. If Mr. Béatse's score would be a little bit higher than the one of Mr. Béchu, with 50.3% of the votes after the second round, the institute considers the difference doesn't allow to tell who is going to win. According to the specialists of Election Scope, the situation is "too close to call".

The outcome of the ballots should even be unpredictable for the left as for the right because of divisions and resentments on the two political sides. On the right, Christophe Béchu is not sure to get the votes of Front national supporters, neither those of Laurent Gérault's followers, both of them unable to go on for the second round. On the left, Jean-Luc Rotureau, ousted by the Parti socialiste, who would get 14% of the votes on the first round, should be able to go on for the second one.

According to the institute, six factors will influence the first round : the previous results of 2008, the quality of the municipal management, socio-demography and real-estate structure, holding of multiple offices, economic situation and the popularity of the Republic president. The second round is first influenced by the presence of two, three or more candidates. In 2008, only 667 votes decided between Jean-Claude Antonini (50.61%) and Christophe Béchu (49.39%). The margin in March 2014 could be even more narrow.

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