07 March, 2014

According to a new opinion poll, Christophe Béchu would win over Frédéric Béatse

Les sondages se suivent et ne se ressemblent pas. Alors qu'il y a une quinzaine de jours, Tns Sofres prédisait une bataille serrée entre Frédéric Béatse et Christophe Béchu pour la mairie d'Angers, un autre enquête d'opinion réalisée par Ipsos donne le candidat de droite vainqueur en cas de duel et en cas de triangulaire. La dispersion des voix de gauche au premier tour se transformerait pour elle en déperditions au second tour.

Opinion polls come one after the other and do not look each other. A new survey from Ipsos predicts the victory of Christophe Béchu against Frédéric Béatse for the second round of the municipal elections. In case of a duel, Mr. Béchu would win the day by 54% of the votes, the outgoing mayor getting 46%. In case of a trilaterally, Jean-Luc Rotureau going on for the second round, the conservative candidate would get 50%, the socialist one 33% and the third 17%. That opinion poll, published on February 28th, contradicts another one, coming from Election Scope (February 25th), forecasting a very narrow victory for Mr. Béatse. A previous one, published by the Sofres a fortnight before noticed that a victory for the right side would be more difficult to get than predicted.

The results of the first round, according to Ipsos, give Christophe Béchu ahead (41%), followed by Frédéric Béatse (26%) and Jean-Luc Rotureau (17%). The other candidates, and among them Gaétan Dirand, far right and Laurent Gérault, centrist, could not go on for the second round. If, in total, and after the first round, the left gets 51% of the votes and the right 49%, that balance of power is not transposed for the second round. It is even the opposite. The dispersal of lists on the left side, on the first round, leads to a loss of votes on the second round and especially, among Jean-Luc Rotureau's supporters. If the two thirds of them would vote for Mr. Béatse, one half ot the last third would abstain, and the second half would vote for Christophe Béchu.

That one was satisfied by the results of the inquiry : "The dynamic is on our side. [The opinion poll] confirm the will of the Angevins to change the mayor with votes intentions especially low for the outgoing mayor", he said while his challenger, Frédéric Béatse, was on a rather cautious line : "This survey presents such a difference with what was revealed two weeks ago by the Sofres that we can question the results published". The last inquiry of Ipsos took place just before the disclosure of the bids got by the communication agency managed by Mr. Béchu's wife for the electoral campaign the candidate for Angers mayor office led from 2008 to 2010.

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